Hypermind’s crowd sourced forecasts for the 2022 French presidential election results outperformed pollsters 90% of the time, with about twice their accuracy.
Gain up to 30 %
Outperform traditional methods 70 % of the time
Our proprietary forecasting technology consolidates forecasts into hard probabilities.
We optimize forecasts using the latest algorithms to further boost accuracy and bring you reliable insights into your strategic issues.
Borrow the brains of our community of champion forecasters, get accurate predictions in days.
Using our panel is the ideal solution when you have no crowd at your disposal or want outside the box thinking on a complex problem.
Before Storm : never ending on-site brainstorming sessions, messy post it notes, a vocal minority dominates the conversation, fuzzy next steps.
After Storm: lighting fast sessions, hundreds of ideas in minutes, everyone gets involved, crystal clear priorities, aligned teams on priorities and next steps.
Because reality aligns itself with our prediction market’s forecasts, Hypermind can reliably predict the probability of any event, from elections, to GDP, to sales volumes and more.
forecasting questions on geopolitics, business, and economics
Each data point in this graph answers the question:
« What is the proportion of events forecasted with probability p that actually occurred? »
We designed our Prescience forecasting platform from a over a decade of scientific collaborations alongside :
This experience means we use the most advanced algorithms to optimize collective forecasts into accurate quantitative probability forecasts and reliable insights.
A prediction market is a competitive betting game designed to predict specific future events or quantities by tapping into the collective intelligence of a large group of participants. Prediction markets combine many diverging viewpoints, expressed as probability forecasts, into a single probability. This collective estimate changes in real time according to all the available information to human minds.
Individual forecasters place bets on outcomes and receive payouts based on their success. The best forecasters are given more weight in the final mix.
Businesses and governments have used prediction markets in various settings:
Prediction markets are most useful when forecasting short to medium term observable events (under 24 months), especially in the following cases:
When the past becomes irrelevant:
Traditional forecasting methods such as time series forecasting rely on the past to predict the future, the assumption being that the past can inform the future.
But sometimes you’ll have little relevant or reliable data at your disposal to make useful projections, and hanging on to historical data may skew your forecasts. Predictions markets aggregate all the available relevant data using the wisdom of crowds.
When knowledge is decentralized:
Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something. Usually, we solve hard problems by asking an expert: an engineer, a doctor, a lawyer. But sometimes when a problem is too complex, when too many variables are involved for a single expert to handle, or when there is too little data to train an artificial intelligence individual expertise falls short.
When the situation is fluid:
Forecasts need to integrate new information continuously, you need real time forecasts to be able to react accordingly.
Human forecasters excel at integrating new information because they spot things that AI would miss, information available on the ground but not yet in data bases.
Prediction markets (or prediction polls) offer 3 main advantages for companies and governments seeking a clearer view of the future:
The first modern prediction market began in 1988 as an academic research project at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business and offered forecasts on that year’s US presidential election. The World Wide Web soon enabled the launch of larger prediction markets targeted at the general public, sometimes bearing other names, like betting exchanges or idea futures.
Over the years, this form of “crowd wisdom” has acquired an impressive track record of accurate forecasting in diverse fields ranging from sports and film to business, elections, geopolitics and even medicine.
Prediction Market forecasts are probabilistic. They answer the question: “What are the chances that this or that outcome will come true?” The best way to assess accuracy in the absolute is over many events, by comparing the probability estimations against observed event frequencies.
Here’s a comparison at every level of probability from 1% to 99%, over 5 years, on 400 questions with 1185 possible outcomes, on international topics ranged from elections, geopolitics, geo-economics, and business.
The figure allows us to answer the following question: “Of all the events predicted by Hypermind to be x% likely, what percentage actually occurred?” The closer to x% the answer; i.e., the closer the data points sit to the chart’s diagonal (bottom left to top right), the more accurate the market’s probabilities.
You can use prediction markets to forecast four types of questions:
They have been used to predict events in various application domains like sports, elections, geopolitics, medicine, science and technology.
Our tried and tested crowd forecasting has helped strategy and innovation departments around the world get a clearer view of their future.
We reduce your uncertainty, so you can make better decisions.
Use Hypermind’s technology to forecast:
Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something.Our forecasting and ideation tools help you gather this precious data, remove noise and bias and get reliable insights into your next strategic decision.
Generating more solutions means increased chances of a breakthrough.
Our tools tap into the knowledge of the many to leverage their cognitive diversity, for a more complete understanding of complex issues.
Our Prescience prediction market produces reliable forecasts in days, by applying the best practices of the science of crowd forecasting.
Our Storm ideation platform helps you prioritize your best ideas in a matter of hours