Accurate forecasting with Collective Intelligence

No data ? New problem ? Failing models ? To predict complex events, crowd forecasting is your best bet.

Tame uncertainty and make smarter decisions with our crowd prediction platforms and our panel of champion forecasters.

Increase your forecast accuracy up to 30 %

Outperform statistical methods 70 % of the time

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Johns Hopkins Center Health Security Hypermind
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Our collective intelligence solutions

Our tools help you predict and innovate

Our proprietary forecasting technology consolidates forecasts into hard probabilities.

We optimize forecasts using the latest aggregation algorithms to further boost accuracy and bring you reliable insights for your strategic decisions.

Borrow the brains of our community of champion forecasters, get accurate predictions within days.

Consult our panel when you need to forecast a complex problem but have no crowd at your disposal or need to complement your own statistical forecasting.

Without Storm: never ending brainstorming sessions, unsorted heaps of post it notes, a vocal minority dominates the conversation, fuzzy next steps.

With Storm: lighting fast sessions, hundreds of ideas in minutes, everyone gets involved, crystal clear priorities, aligned teams on next steps.

Reliably predict the probability of complex events, from elections, to GDP, to infectious disease and more.

GDP

election outcomes

infectious diseases

sales volumes

Hypermind's forecasting accuracy on over 875,000 forecasts

The forecasts of our prediction market almost perfectly match the observed frequency of events, at all levels of probability.

Reality seemingly aligns itself with our crow forecasts.
For example: 70% of all events estimated to have a 70% chance of happening have actually happened.

Reality

Frequency of occurence of predicted outcomes

99 % correlation between prediction and reality

All events forecasted with a 70 % probability actually happen 70 % of the time.

Each data point in this graph answers the question:
"What is the proportion of events forecasted with probability p that actually happen ?"

Predicted probability

Observed probabilities

Predicted probability

Outcome prices on the prediction market

Data based on:

875 735

forecasts

816

geopolitical / economic questions

2 535

possible outcomes

8,5

years (2014 – 2022)

Our evidence-based forecasting method

Prescien crod forecasts on Russian economy

Over 10 years of scientific collaborations

We developed our Prescience forecasting platform from a over a decade of scientific collaborations alongside governments, researchers, and the private sector, most notably the US intelligence community and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

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Improving geopolitical forecasting with the US intelligence community

Predicting complex events like election outcomes and conflicts as early and accurately as possible is a central concern to the intelligence community.

To improve their ability to forecast uncertain events, we took part in two IARPA programs that pushed the boundaries of prediction:

Johns Hopkins Center Health Security Hypermind

Anticipating infectious disease with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

To predict how various infectious diseases, from dengue, to malaria and Covid-19 would spread, we teamed up with public health experts to test the forecasting skills of a mixed crowd of both experts and skilled forecasters 

Johns Hopkins has since added crowd forecasting to its predictive arsenal as a complementary method of forecasting disease outbreaks when little or no data is available.

Use our cutting edge aggregation algorithms to turn dispersed knowledge into accurate forecasts

We combine individual forecasts using the most advanced aggregation algorithms on the market, for even more accurate collective forecasts. 

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What our clients say about us

Our free Masterclass

20 years of collective intelligence research condensed into one free Masterclass on the wisdom of crowds and crowd forecasting

Think like champion forecasters

Learn the 4 habits of the champion forecasters who outclassed US intelligence agencies

See the future more clearly

Learn to think in bets about future events by thinking in shades of probabilities

Learn the science of collective intelligence

Make your own teams smarter using the 4 essential principles of wise groups

Brilliant video!

One of the best and most complete explanations of crowd sourcing I have ever seen! You are amazing 👏

Excellent video! You made it all clear.

Future Africa 2022

The Future of Africa – 2022 predictions

What will happen in West Africa in 2022 ? Le Point Afrique and Hypermind have gathered predictions on the future of Africa and Côte d’Ivoire in particular via a forecasting contest with over 300 participants, and 1600 predictions.

Read More »

Prediction Market FAQ:
Gathering dispersed knowledge on complex problems

A prediction market is a competitive betting game designed to predict specific future events or quantities by tapping into the collective intelligence of a large group of participants. Prediction markets combine many diverging viewpoints, expressed as probability forecasts, into a single probability. This collective estimate changes in real time according to all the available information to human minds.

Individual forecasters place bets on outcomes and receive payouts based on their success. The best forecasters are given more weight in the final mix.

Businesses and governments have been using prediction markets in various settings:

  • Intel, Hewlett Packard, Ford, Eli Lilly, and EDF (Electricité de France) have used prediction markets to anticipate KPIs, market shifts, sales volumes, a product’s chances of success, and delays in projects.
  • The US intelligence community used prediction markets in geopolitical forecasting to understand the likelihood of election results, wars and diplomatic events.
  • In the public health sector, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security has used crowd forecasting to anticipate the spread and severity of infectious diseases like dengue, malaria and Covid-19.

Prediction markets are most useful when forecasting short to medium term observable events (under 24 months), especially in the following cases:

When the past becomes irrelevant:

Traditional forecasting methods such as time series forecasting rely on the past to predict the future, the assumption being that the past can inform the future. 

But sometimes you’ll have little relevant or reliable data at your disposal to make useful projections, and hanging on to historical data may skew your forecasts. Predictions markets aggregate all the available relevant data using the wisdom of crowds.

When knowledge is decentralized:

Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something. Usually, we solve hard problems by asking an expert: an engineer, a doctor, a lawyer. But sometimes when a problem is too complex,  when too many variables are involved for a single expert to handle, or when there is too little data to train an artificial intelligence individual expertise falls short.

Prediction markets (or prediction polls like our Prescience platform) help consolidate the informed guesses of the many based on all the available data.

When the situation is fluid:

Forecasts need to integrate new information continuously, you need real time forecasts to be able to react accordingly. 

Human forecasters excel at integrating new information because they spot things that AI would miss, information available on the ground but not yet in data bases.

Prediction markets (or prediction polls) offer 3 main advantages for companies and governments seeking a clearer view of the future:

  • Prediction markets shine under uncertainty. They excel at accurate prediction where other methods fail because they do not rely on AI crunching structured data, but on the informed guesswork of a diversely minded crowd of humans. (hence “crowd forecasting”)

  • Prediction markets offer precise predictions expressed as probability forecasts. Saying an event is “probable” means different things to different people. “Probable” could mean a 60% chance to one person, but 85% to another. Numbers make things crystal clear, so you can make an informed decision.

  • Prediction markets are a sturdy and trustworthy forecasting method. By gathering information from many minds thanks to an objective aggregation process, prediction markets easily outperform biased or noisy individual judgments. Relying on a crowd helps reduce the risk of listening to the wrong person, instead trusting a decentralized network of independent points of view.

The first modern prediction market began in 1988 as an academic research project at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business and offered forecasts on that year’s US presidential election. The World Wide Web soon enabled the launch of larger prediction markets targeted at the general public, sometimes bearing other names, like betting exchanges or idea futures.

Hypermind’s pioneering prediction market was first launched in 2000 under the name NewsFutures.

Over the years, this form of “crowd wisdom” has acquired an impressive track record of accurate forecasting in diverse fields ranging from sports and film to business, elections, geopolitics and even medicine.

Prediction Market forecasts are probabilistic. They answer the question: “What are the chances that this or that outcome will come true?” The best way to assess accuracy in the absolute is over many events, by comparing the probability estimations against observed event frequencies.

Here’s a comparison at every level of probability from 1% to 99%, over 5 years, on 400 questions with 1185 possible outcomes, on international topics ranged from elections, geopolitics, geo-economics, and business. Hypermind prediction market calibration graph

The figure allows us to answer the following question: “Of all the events predicted by Hypermind to be x% likely, what percentage actually occurred?” The closer to x% the answer; i.e., the closer the data points sit to the chart’s diagonal (bottom left to top right), the more accurate the market’s probabilities.

You can use prediction markets to forecast four types of questions:

  • binary: “will John Doe win the election ?” (yes/no)
  • discrete: “who will win the election ?”(John, Jane, Kane)
  • ordered: “what will John Doe’s share of the vote be ?” (more than 55% / 50 to 55% / 45 to 50% …)
  • linear: “what will John Doe’s share of the vote be ?” (market price = predicted vote share in %)

They have been used to predict events in various application domains like sports, elections, geopolitics, medicine, science and technology.

Founder's note

Emile Servan-Schreiber Supercollectif

The surest way for a company to spark its ingenuity is less about blindly entrusting a providential, over educated, visionary, or over-performing individuals and more about harnessing the tacit collective intelligence of collaborators and clients.

Facing a complex problem your current forecasting method can't predict ? Let's chat.

Our tried and tested crowd forecasting has helped strategy and innovation departments around the world get a clearer view of their future.

Reduce your uncertainty with hard probabilities, so you can make better decisions.

Use Hypermind’s services to forecast:

  • sales volumes,
  • election outcomes,
  • delays in a large project
  • a product’s chances of commercial success,
  • infectious disease outbreaks,
  • AI performance benchmarks,

How Crowd Wisdom helps tame uncertainty

Collective intelligence is most useful when we seek to predict the success of a new product, to pursue a new market, a new distribution channel, or when a familiar market is suddenly disrupted.

Uncover valuable untapped information

Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something.

Our forecasting and ideation tools help you gather this precious data, remove noise and bias and get reliable insights into your next strategic decision.

cognitive diversity bonus

Discover unexpected solutions

Generating more solutions means increased chances of a breakthrough.

Our tools tap into the knowledge of the many to leverage their cognitive diversity, for a more complete understanding of complex issues.

Accurate and fast results

Our Prescience prediction market produces reliable forecasts in days, by applying the best practices of the science of crowd forecasting.

Our Storm ideation platform helps you prioritize your best ideas in a matter of hours