How can we better predict the future? Cognitive scientists know that forecasting is the essence of intelligence.
Improving our forecasting skills will help us to become smarter, individually and collectively.
This masterclass will introduce you to the wisdom of crowds: a group’s ability to be smarter than the smartest person in the group, particularly when it comes to making accurate predictions.
You will learn how to improve your own forecasting skills with the ABC’s of champion forecasters.
Are crowds always stupid? No. When properly organized, a crowd can be smarter than even its smartest member.
We’ll take a closer look at the discovery of the “wisdom of crowds”, dissect the “diversity theorem”, and give you the recipe for collective intelligence.
Collective intelligence pushes the limits of forecasting. Especially when too many variables are involved for a single expert to handle, or when there is too little data to feed an artificial intelligence.
How do we know this? Before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, Hypermind teamed up with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in a large-scale research study aiming to test the epidemiological forecasting skills of several hundred public health experts and other medical professionals.
The results were astonishing!
The future is not written, it is probabilistic.
So let’s discuss how to think about probabilities, and how to objectively assess the accuracy of a prediction.
Forecasting is a matter of skill, not luck. Discover the ABC’s of how champion forecasters think, recently validated by US intelligence agencies.