Lumenogic rebrands as Hypermind. We become founding partners in the world’s first School of Collective Intelligence at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Morocco, offering master and doctorate degrees in this new interdisciplinary field, as well as field services for companies and governments in the booming African market.
Emile Servan-Schreiber publishes “Supercollectif : la nouvelle puissance de nos intelligences “ (Fayard), which surveys 20 years of research and practice in using prediction markets to make companies and governments smarter.
Lumenogic partners with Raytheon BBN Laboratories on a winning bid for IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) program. We are researching the most efficient ways to combine machine models and collective intelligence to produce the most accurate geopolitical forecasts.
The forecasting accuracy of the Hypermind prediction market matches that of Good Judgment “superforecasters” in a direct comparison test run by IARPA.
Emile Servan-Schreiber delivers a lecture on prediction markets at the World Bank, alongside Jason Matheny, future director of IARPA.Later that year, Lumenogic launches the Hypermind prediction market, based on the best insights gathered from IARPA’s ACE program.Throughout the year, Lumenogic also advised the founders of the PredictIt.org political prediction market, launched at the end of 2014.
Lumenogic is retained by Philip Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project, at the University of Pennsylvania, to bring its prediction market expertise to IARPA’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program.
Lumenogic perfects its 3-steps collaborative ideation platform for very large-scale deployments. Bloomberg publishes an article called “Lumenogic Mines Workers’ Opinions for Air Force, Multinationals” about our work in which our co-founder Emile Servan- Schreiber and several of our customers are cited.
NewsFutures joins forces with two managing partners of The New England Consulting Group and evolves into Lumenogic, a leading-edge consulting firm that puts the power of large-scale collective intelligence in the hands of senior leadership.
First fielding of NewsFutures’ concept-testing platform: The Concept Optimizer.
NewsFutures starts partnering with the New England Consulting Group to deliver high-stakes strategic applications of collective intelligence.The University of Iowa, home of the world-famous Iowa Electronic Markets, licenses NewsFutures’ prediction market source code to develop the Iowa Electronic health Markets, the world’s most socially-valuable prediction market.The New York Times published an article called “Betting to Improve the Odds” in which Emile Servan- Schreiber (our co-founder) and InterContinental Hotels Group (our customer) are quoted.
First fielding of NewsFutures new long-term forecasting technology: the Impact Matrix.The company also launches Bet2Give, the first charity-driven real-money prediction market.
Emile Servan-Schreiber is invited to the World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss the value of prediction markets.Later that year, NewsFutures fields two new platforms, Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant to overcome some intrinsic limitations of prediction markets in an enterprise setting. The year ends with the launch of the company’s first real-money market covering the parliamentary elections in Holland in partnership with leading daily de Volkskrant.
Yahoo! licenses our prediction market source code to develop the Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game.
Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures), David Pennock (Yahoo!), Justin Wolfers (Wharton), and Brian Galebach (ProbabilitySports.com) publish a landmark comparative study of play-money vs. real-money markets (NewsFutures vs Tradesports/Intrade), concluding that play-money markets can be just as predictive as real-money ones. This result gives a huge credibility boost to enterprise markets, which are necessarily based on play-money. James Surowiecki’s best seller “The wisdom of crowds” makes several mentions of NewsFutures
Eli Lilly sponsors a 9-month long public prediction market on NewsFutures to predict trends in the pharmaceutical industry. It is the first instance of a multinational company leveraging the wisdom of a public prediction market to inform its strategic decisions.
First B2B contract, with the French retailer FNAC.
USAToday.com co-brands our public prediction market in the U.S.. It is the first-ever partnership between a major U.S. media website and a prediction market.