Hypermind prediction markets optimize the supercollective intelligence of crowds. Stakeholders are asked to predict what will actually happen, not what they would like to happen. Which complex projects will meet their deadlines? Which new products will be most successful? Which new ideas are most likely to solve your problem?
Research published over the last couple decades shows that forecasts from enterprise prediction markets are more accurate than those from classic methods 75% of the time, with up to 30% improvement in accuracy.
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When people express a preference, like in a vote or a survey, they rely mostly on their emotions and memory. But when they bet on what will happen, as in a prediction market, they use the reasoning part of their brain, and the results are more powerful.
A betting brain thinks harder and better than a brain that merely expresses a preference through a vote or “like”.
Betting activates brain modules associated with
reasoning and the regulation of emotions.
Expressing a preference (voting, liking) fires up brain regions
associated with emotions and memory, rather than reasoning.
