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Improving the quality of geopolitical forecasts is part of the core mission of the CIA and other United States intelligence agencies. That’s why the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) funds large-scale research into crowd-based forecasting. From 2012 to 2015, Hypermind Lab’s experts in prediction markets were recruited into IARPA’s ACE research program by a team led by Philip Tetlock (University of Pennsylvania) and Don Moore (UC Berkeley). According to Jason Matheny, ACE program manager and later IARPA Director, this research led to “the largest improvement in judgmental forecasting accuracy observed in the literature.”
In 2017, IARPA launched another multi-year research program called Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) aimed at understanding how to best combine human and computer forecasting abilities. Hypermind Lab’s scientists and developers are again at the forefront of that essential research, as part of a team led by Raytheon BBN Laboratories.