Our forecasting competitions give you insights into international politics, geopolitics, economics, and science
The human mind excels when a situation is too new or too complex for big data statistical approaches.
By combining the knowledge of many minds, you get more reliable forecasts than from even the best experts.
How Johns Hopkins used our crowd forecasts to predict infectious disease
The forecasts of our prediction market almost perfectly match the observed frequency of events, at all levels of probability.
Reality seemingly aligns itself with our crow forecasts.
For example: 70% of all events estimated to have a 70% chance of happening have actually happened.
Frequency of occurence of predicted outcomes
All events forecasted with a 70 % probability actually happen 70 % of the time.
Outcome prices on the prediction market
geopolitical / economic questions
years (2014 – 2022)
Instead of relying on a representative panel, we harness our crowd’s collective intelligence via an online betting platform called a prediction market.
This innovative method stems from research programs into crowd forecasting conducted over the past decade by U.S. intelligence agencies.
Instead of polling the preferences of representative samples of voters, a contest is held to predict the outcome of the election.
A few hundred amateur political scientists make their predictions, and the best are rewarded.
The resulting collective forecast is updated daily by calculating a weighted average of the most recent half of the individual predictions.
Within this average, we increase the weighting of forecasters who frequently adjust their predictions or whose track record is established in previous competitions.
Prediction markets are most useful when forecasting short to medium term observable events (under 24 months), especially in the following cases:
When the past becomes irrelevant:
Traditional forecasting methods such as time series forecasting rely on the past to predict the future, the assumption being that the past can inform the future.
But sometimes you’ll have little relevant or reliable data at your disposal to make useful projections, and hanging on to historical data may skew your forecasts. Predictions markets aggregate all the available relevant data using the wisdom of crowds.
When knowledge is decentralized:
Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something. Usually, we solve hard problems by asking an expert: an engineer, a doctor, a lawyer. But sometimes when a problem is too complex, when too many variables are involved for a single expert to handle, or when there is too little data to train an artificial intelligence individual expertise falls short.
Prediction markets (or prediction polls like our Prescience platform) help consolidate the informed guesses of the many based on all the available data.
When the situation is fluid:
Forecasts need to integrate new information continuously, you need real time forecasts to be able to react accordingly.
Human forecasters excel at integrating new information because they spot things that AI would miss, information available on the ground but not yet in data bases.
Businesses and governments have used prediction markets in various settings:
A prediction market is a competitive betting game designed to predict specific future events or quantities by tapping into the collective intelligence of a large group of participants. Prediction markets combine many diverging viewpoints, expressed as probability forecasts, into a single probability. This collective estimate changes in real time according to all the available information to human minds.
Individual forecasters place bets on outcomes and receive payouts based on their success. The best forecasters are given more weight in the final mix.
Prediction markets (or prediction polls) offer 3 main advantages for companies and governments seeking a clearer view of the future:
You can use prediction markets to forecast four types of questions:
They have been used to predict events in various application domains like sports, elections, geopolitics, medicine, science and technology.
The first modern prediction market began in 1988 as an academic research project at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business and offered forecasts on that year’s US presidential election. The World Wide Web soon enabled the launch of larger prediction markets targeted at the general public, sometimes bearing other names, like betting exchanges or idea futures.
Hypermind’s pioneering prediction market was first launched in 2000 under the name NewsFutures.
Over the years, this form of “crowd wisdom” has acquired an impressive track record of accurate forecasting in diverse fields ranging from sports and film to business, elections, geopolitics and even medicine.