Instant reasoned probabilities powered by AI

The Forecasting Machine enables you to extract the most forecasting value from high-end LLMs

How it works

The Forecasting Machine uses best-in-class LLMs to generate reasoned probability forecasts grounded in a comprehensive model of the world and informed by the latest news from the most reputable sources.


Key events and drivers are extracted from relevant new stories before prompting the LLMs to reason about a prediction problem using best-practice power forecasting methods.


Regular forecast updates are informed by dynamic memory of previous forecasts and impactful events.

Advantages of AI forecasting over Crowdforecasting


Use Case

Forecasting the USA 2024 presidential election in all 50 states

We are using the Forecasting Machine to predict the winner of the presidential election in all 50 states. Informed by the latest news, the  Machine provides daily probability updates and comprehensive rationales.

The Machine's forecasts can be compared with those generated by our prediction market regarding the most strategic battleground states.

Check out today's forecasts here: https://tfm.hypermind.com/ai/elections2024